Typically, the party of an incumbent president tends to lose seats in the first midterm of their tenure - but this year appears to be an atypical one, as this and other polls have shown.Īccording to an average of polling data from Real Clear Politics (RCP), most polls show Republicans with a slim lead of 44.3 percent over Democrats, who on average poll at 42.7 percent in various surveys. The new polling numbers suggest it will be a tight race, though prognosticators continue to say that the midterms are the GOP’s to lose.

“Among the nearly 1 in 10 voters for whom abortion is the top issue, 89% are very motivated to vote this November comparatively, 76% of voters who say the economy is the top issue are very motivated to vote,” Kimball said, adding that “voters who say abortion is the most important issue break for the Democratic congressional candidate over Republicans 80% to 8%.” According to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, “those who say abortion is the top issue facing the nation are more motivated to vote this November than any other issue group.” Those supporting Democrats appear to be motivated in large part by the Supreme Court’s upending of abortion rights recognitions in a decision issued last month. In February, Republicans led Democrats by 9 points, but that lead has gradually shrunk over the intervening months. 'I do not think he's enjoying the moment as much as many of his supporters are.' The New York Times similarly reported that the former president has been complaining about the decision since last week, calling it 'bad for Republicans.The 1 point difference is within the survey’s 2.9 point margin of error, which means the two parties are essentially tied, according to the poll.īoth parties’ voters appear equally motivated to vote, with 93.4 percent of Democratic-leaning voters saying they are very or somewhat motivated, and 93.2 percent of Republican-leaning voters saying the same.Īlthough showcasing a statistical tie between the two major parties, the news is probably more welcomed by Democrats, as Emerson College polls throughout the year have suggested Republicans were likely to lead in the midterms. 'When you speak to him, it's the response of someone fearing the backlash and fearing the politics of what happens when conservatives actually get what they want' on abortion, a source told the outlet. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who has taken credit for the ruling, is privately 'sh*ting on' on it, according to Rolling Stone. Still, the outlet reported, no Republican or Democratic experts speculated that the decision would altogether prevent the GOP from regaining the House. RELATED: Trump worries that abortion will haunt possible 2024 re-election 'And can they turn that into some turnout? I think the answer is probably 'Yes.'' 'The only thing have got going for them is the Roe thing, which is what, 40 years of settled law that will be changed that will cause some societal consternation,' they added. Inflation is a giant problem,' a former U.S. Want a daily wrap-up of all the news and commentary Salon has to offer? Subscribe to our morning newsletter, Crash Course. We want to have a conversation about Joe Biden, about pretty much anything else besides Roe.This is a losing issue for Republicans.' 'We want to have a conversation about the economy. 'This is not a conversation we want to have,' Republican strategist John Thomas said of the abortion ruling. Thus far, much of the GOP strategy has simply been to criticize and dismantle the Biden agenda, rather than enacting policies of their own. Immediately after the ruling, Politico reported that Republican strategists are worried about how Roe's rescission might impact the party's midterm aspirants. voters feeling that the Supreme Court's decision was a 'step forward.' More broadly, most of America is not on the GOP's side, just 31% of all U.S. Sunday's poll reveals that 28% of independents said that the Supreme Court's ruling on Roe would make them more likely to cast a ballot. Republicans might also face electoral challenges from a wave of newly-activated independent voters, 63% of whom want abortion to be legal. RELATED: Young women were the 'foot soldiers' of the anti-abortion movement and 'morally bankrupt' Trump The gap may pose a significant hurdle for the GOP in riling up their base against liberal backlash. Only 20% of Republicans could say the same. Wade, the landmark 1973 law that, until last Friday, enshrined America's constitutional right to abortion.Īccording to the poll, released by CBS News on Sunday, half of Democratic voters said last week's ruling would make them more inclined to vote.

A new poll indicates that Republicans may be punished in the upcoming midterms for the Supreme Court's overturning Roe v.

Midterm polls